Saskatoon homes sales to decline while prices increase: CMHC

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) released their fall outlook for the Saskatoon real estate market today, predicting a decline in unit sales and an increase in house prices through 2009.

“Saskatoon resales will decline almost 20 per cent by the end of 2008 with a further 11 per cent reduction occurring in 2009. Notwithstanding 2008’s forecast decline, resales will still be in excess of the ten-year average of 3,170 sales.”

“Our forecast calls for the average price to reach $287,000 in 2008 and approach the $300,000 mark in 2009 as price gains cool from the 2007 pace. Higher listings and buyer resistance to higher prices will result in relatively weaker price gains compared to 2007 for the balance of 2008 and 2009.”

Hmmm.

Read CMHC’s Fall Housing Outlook for Saskatoon here.

I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions.  All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.

Follow our daily updates on Twitter @SaskatoonHomes.

Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate

CMHC Housing Outlook for Saskatoon still fairly rosy, or not?

The latest Housing Market Outlook for the Saskatoon area, which was released by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) last week predicts that the Saskatoon will experience its “highest number of sales on record” during 2008 before sales begin to “moderate somewhat…due to rapidly escalating prices and weaker speculative demand.”


Based on February statistics, CMHC notes that the average selling price of a resale home in Saskatoon had already reached $262,000 and predicts further gains of 18% through 2008. That would bring us to about $275,000, easily $25,000 behind the roughly $300,000 averages that we’ve seen posted over the past three months. According to CMHC, we can expect to see prices rise another 8.2% in 2009 to nearly $300,000.


At the end of April, the second consecutive month where sales were down over the previous year, resale unit sales were just slightly ahead of last year (for the year). May is likely to show some larger declines in total unit sales. It seems overly optimistic at this point that we could finish 2008 ahead of 2007.


Read the CMHC Housing Outlook for Saskatoon here

I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions.  All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.

Follow our daily updates on Twitter @SaskatoonHomes.

Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate

Saskatchewan to buck national trend of declining resale activity and housing starts: CMHC

The latest release of CMHC’s Housing Market Outlook forecasts declining resale activity and housing starts on a national level, but predicts Saskatchewan will buck the trend showing increases in both categories.


While existing home sales across Canada will experience an 8.5% decline, resale activity in Saskatchewan is expected to “facilitate a record number of transactions in 2008, reaching 13,400 units,” according to the report. Nationally, housing starts will decrease by 6% while Saskatchewan experiences an increase of 17% to 4,600 units, “the highest total in nearly 30 years.”


CMHC believes positive migration trends, expanded production of potash and oil, higher commodity prices and surging government expenditures will continue to drive Saskatchewan’s economy forward in the years ahead.


“The province’s changing economic fortunes are clearly reflected in the 2007 migration figures. After 22 consecutive years of decline, net migration in Saskatchewan rebounded with a record high of 13,583 migrants. Last year’s performance erased all of the losses in the preceding three years.”


Does Saskatchewan have the goods to buck this national trend?


Read CMHC’s Housing Market Outlook here.

I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions.  All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.

Follow our daily updates on Twitter @SaskatoonHomes.

Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate

CMHC Housing Outlook predicts further price gains for Saskatchewan homes

Attention bears! You may want to sit down for this.


Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) released its first quarter Housing Market Outlook today, and Saskatchewan is featured in the “Provincial Spotlight.”


“During 2007, the Saskatchewan economy was quite buoyant, thanks to a strong natural resource sector, high labour force participation an improved migration picture. Saskatchewan has become an alternative to Alberta for economic prosperity and less expensive housing. Housing starts jumped from 3,715 units in 2006 to about 6,000 units in 2007, a 61.7 per cent gain, making 2007 the best performance in over 20 years. Modest declines in new home construction to 5,600 units are expected in 2008. The average MLS® price in Saskatchewan should rise by 31.7 per cent in 2007, 26.4% in 2008 and 8.2 per cent in 2009.”


CMHC estimates that Saskatchewan saw positive net migration to the tune of 14,325 people in 2007. They expect to we’ll see the province’s population grow by 10,200 in 2008, and a further 8,200 in 2009.


“Local Market Indicators” forecast the average selling price of a Saskatoon home rising 18% in 2008 from $232,755 to $275,000. This forecast seems inconceivable to those who have lived here for many years. They’ve watched the price of local homes double over the past five years and we’re all wondering how long it can go on. According to CMHC’s forecast, Saskatoon homes will increase a further 8% through 2009, to a whopping $297,500.


If CMHC is right, and they often aren’t, young Saskatonians will continue to occupy the sidelines in the Saskatoon real estate market as the gap between average incomes and average home prices continues to grow.


Read CMHC’s first Quarter Housing Market Outlook here

I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions.  All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.

Follow our daily updates on Twitter @SaskatoonHomes.

Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate

Saskatoon apartment vacancy rate drops to record lows

The Rental Market Report released yesterday by Canada Housing and Mortgage Corporation (CMHC) shows apartment vacancy rates in Saskatoon falling to a record low of just .6%, down from 3.2% last October. Saskatoon “Southwest” showed the largest number of available apartments and a vacancy rate of 2.1%. The six other areas measured in the report have vacancy rates as low as .1% and as high a one percent.

It’s no surprise to anyone that rents have increased accordingly. According to CMHC, the average monthly rent for all types of suites surveyed saw a $76 increase from October of last year. I’m not involved in the rental markets but my perception is that rents are increasing at a much higher rate than what’s reported here.


CMHC points to a number of factors which are impacting vacancy rates including expanding employment and wages, in-migration, rapid price escalation of new and resale housing (affordability), rehabilitation of existing apartments leading to lower turn-over, and of course, increased numbers of condo conversions.


Analysts at CMHC expect vacancy rates to stabilize at less than 2% through 2008 while rents increase an additional $60.


Read to full Rental Market Report here

I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions.  All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.

Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate