Saskatoon real estate still indicative of a buyer’s market: CMHC

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s (CMHC) Fall Housing Market Outlook for the Saskatoon area is calling for a 2.7 percent price reduction in the average resale price of a Saskatoon home in 2009, followed by a more marginal gain of 2.1 percent in 2010.

“With sales on the rise and listings trending down, the sales-to-active listings ratio is trending up. The seasonally adjusted ratio has risen on a monthly basis for six consecutive months. Although the ratio is rising, the market characteristic is still indicative of a buyer’s market. Increasing sales and falling listings will result in a continuing trend toward a balanced market in the coming months.”

A summary of CMHC’s forecasts for 2009 and 2010 follows.

Read the full report for Saskatoon here.
Read CMHC’s national housing report here.

I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions.  All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.

Real estate geeks can follow our daily updates on Twitter @Norm_Fisher.

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Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate

Saskatoon new and resale house prices to slide in 2009, rebound in 2010: CMHC

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) released their Spring Housing Market Outlook for the Saskatoon CMA today. Here’s the gist of it.

After the strongest two-year performance since the late 1970’s, Saskatoon single-detached housing starts will decline to 600 units in 2009 and bounce back to 725 units in 2010. The 2009 singles forecast represents the lowest number of housing starts since 2001 when 542 single starts took place.

Statistics Canada’s New House Price Index (NHPI) measures the increase in the price of a house where the detailed specifications pertaining to each house remain the same between two consecutive periods. Given the decline in production, we forecast a 6.6 per cent decline in the NHPI in 2009. Next year will see a partial recovery of these losses with growth of three per cent.

Saskatoon resales will continue to slow in 2009, slipping 15.3 per cent to 3,000 sales. Sales were last at this level in 2004 when 2,999 resales took place. Price reductions should contribute to a rebound in 2010 with sales of 3,150 units, a five per cent increase over the 2009 figure. Slower in-migration and a cooler economy combined with elevated housing prices have dampened demand and restrained sales from the historically high levels seen in 2005 to 2008. MLS® sales peaked in 2007 with 4,446 resales recorded.

Seasonally adjusted monthly sales are trending downward, but the severity of the decline has eased in recent months. In June 2008, the monthly trend was down close to five per cent compared to the previous month while seasonally adjusted sales were down by only one per cent from February to March 2009.

By the end of the first quarter, year-to-date new listings were up 16 per cent from last year at that time. March seasonally adjusted new listings were down 0.8 per cent from February 2009. March marked the sixth month-over-month decline in seasonally adjusted new listings activity. This suggests the new listings trend has peaked.

A slower decline in the number of sales and lower new listings have not yet worked their way into the inventory of homes for sale on the MLS® service. In March, there were 2,399 active listings, more than double the 2008 March figure. Seasonally adjusted active listings increased by 4.8 per cent compared to the previous month and reached the highest level on record in March.

Our forecast calls for average price to slip to $275,000 in 2009, a 4.4 per cent decline from the 2008 annual figure. Historically high active listings and buyer resistance to higher prices will result in the 2009 fall off in average price. There will be a modest increase of close to two per cent in 2010, bringing the aver-age price to the $280,000 mark. The firmer market expected in 2010 will allow modest price gains.

The full report is here.

I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions.  All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.

Follow our daily updates on Twitter @Norm_Fisher.
Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate

Housing starts tumble across Canada; Saskatoon among the hardest hit

Housing starts across Canada continued to weaken through the month of February falling 59% nationally and 69% in Saskatchewan, according to “Preliminary Housing Start Data” released by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation today.  Only British Columbia and Prince Edward Island showed larger drops as both provinces saw starts decline 76% in February compared to the same month last year.

On a year-to-date basis (January and February), housing starts are down 50% across Canada. Saskatchewan leads the provinces showing the largest decline, off 74% with just 152 starts this year compared to 578 for the same period in 2008.

Saskatoon’s year-to-date housing starts sit at 57 units, a decline of 85% over the same period last year. Kelowna was the only Canadian city to post a larger drop with starts falling 96%, year-over-year, from 735 last year to just 28 this year.

Paul Caton, CMHC senior market analyst told the Saskatoon Star Phoenix that new home construction is off to a slow start this year as developers work to finish and sell the houses they began building in 2008.

CMHC’s Preliminary Housing Start Data is here.
The Star Phoenix story is here.

I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions.  All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.

Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate

Saskatoon homes sales to decline while prices increase: CMHC

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) released their fall outlook for the Saskatoon real estate market today, predicting a decline in unit sales and an increase in house prices through 2009.

“Saskatoon resales will decline almost 20 per cent by the end of 2008 with a further 11 per cent reduction occurring in 2009. Notwithstanding 2008’s forecast decline, resales will still be in excess of the ten-year average of 3,170 sales.”

“Our forecast calls for the average price to reach $287,000 in 2008 and approach the $300,000 mark in 2009 as price gains cool from the 2007 pace. Higher listings and buyer resistance to higher prices will result in relatively weaker price gains compared to 2007 for the balance of 2008 and 2009.”

Hmmm.

Read CMHC’s Fall Housing Outlook for Saskatoon here.

I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions.  All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.

Follow our daily updates on Twitter @SaskatoonHomes.

Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate

CMHC Housing Outlook for Saskatoon still fairly rosy, or not?

The latest Housing Market Outlook for the Saskatoon area, which was released by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) last week predicts that the Saskatoon will experience its “highest number of sales on record” during 2008 before sales begin to “moderate somewhat…due to rapidly escalating prices and weaker speculative demand.”


Based on February statistics, CMHC notes that the average selling price of a resale home in Saskatoon had already reached $262,000 and predicts further gains of 18% through 2008. That would bring us to about $275,000, easily $25,000 behind the roughly $300,000 averages that we’ve seen posted over the past three months. According to CMHC, we can expect to see prices rise another 8.2% in 2009 to nearly $300,000.


At the end of April, the second consecutive month where sales were down over the previous year, resale unit sales were just slightly ahead of last year (for the year). May is likely to show some larger declines in total unit sales. It seems overly optimistic at this point that we could finish 2008 ahead of 2007.


Read the CMHC Housing Outlook for Saskatoon here

I’m always happy to answer your Saskatoon real estate questions.  All of my contact info is here. Please feel free to call or email.

Follow our daily updates on Twitter @SaskatoonHomes.

Norm Fisher
Royal LePage Saskatoon Real Estate