The Saskatoon Star Phoenix ran a story today on the front page of the Business section with the headline, “City house prices stable.” The story, written by Murray Lyons, Star Phoenix Business Editor references the National Century 21 fall house price survey and suggests that Saskatoon house prices will see substantially less appreciation in 2007.
Rob Friesen, broker for Century 21 Conexus Realty Ltd. in Saskatoon is quoted as saying, “I don’t think we’re going to see increases such as 13 or 15 percent as we’ve seen lately. I think we’re going to start seeing some more normal appreciation now, something more like three to six percent.”
Rob Friesen is a man I respect and his opinion on real estate matters carries some weight with me, but in this particular instance, I do think his prediction underestimates the factors which will affect our market in 2007. He’s not the only one in this camp. Remax recently released its “2007 Housing Market Outlook” for Canada. While they predicted Saskatoon will lead the country for growth in unit sales, they predicted price growth of only 4%.
Why am I feeling bullish, you ask?
First of all, several things are going on in mortgage financing which I believe will have a positive effect on the market.
- Mortgage rates are expected to drop in the range of .5-1% over the next few quarters.
- Many of the major lenders are now offering 40-year amortizations. That reduces the monthly carrying costs on a $160,000 at 5.5% from $956.79 to $801.79 and opens the market up to lots more buyers.
- Mainstream lenders are breaking into the “b” lender market offering the opportunity for credit-worthy buyers to buy a home with no money down and they’re offering these kinds of arrangements at attractive and competitive mortgage rates. Again, more people will qualify to buy a home as a result.
Add to those factors, the fact that Saskatchewan seems to be on a roll. Business owners are feeling good and employment is up. Earnings are up and taxes are down for both individuals and businesses. There’s a growing demand for skilled workers throughout the province. Affordability and quality of life issues will bring a continuing flow of people migrating to this province in 2007. Saskatoon will be the largest benefactor in the province.
Finally, active residential listings are at an all time low. Today, there are fewer than 400 active residential listings of all types (single-family, condos, etc) listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service of the Saskatoon Real Estate Board. Last year, at this time we had closer to 650 homes in the market. Again, low supply and high demand create upward pressure.
In a nutshell, here’s what the various camps are saying will happen next year.
Century 21 sees prices increasing three to six percent.
Remax is predicting price increases of four percent.
CHMC is predicting prices will rise by seven percent.
Count me in for eight percent, or better!
I’ve played my cards and now, we’ll just have to wait and see what actually happens.
Royal LePage Vidorra